2022

Light at the end of the tunnel?
And the main bear argument.
Style is everything. My longest post ever.
A lot of uninteresting jibber jabber.
What I like / What I don’t like / What I don’t know
Getting to know the CEO of Evolution Gaming
Unstructured notes from a conversation with Todd Haushalter, CPO of EVO.
Intelligence, energy, and integrity. And if they don’t have the last one, don’t even bother with the first two. [W. Buffett]
I sometimes suffer from the cold start problem. This is a curated list of resources that I can have at my fingertips when I’m not sure what to do.
Don’t be a flip-flopper, and don’t be a Jeremiah
Portfolio update, May 2022
Confirmation bias is a bitch!
Bad month on paper, good month psychologically.
Or how my wife got a few shares of a gold mining microcap
Thoughts on the market and some of my recent moves.
I could live to regret it, but I’m passing on $SMLR.
I paper-handed SMLR. Here’s why.
We only learn when it’s painful.
SMLR dropping like a rock. I’m buying.
Shitty start of the year.
I quit my job. This is a ‘me’ post.
The Chinese Mother, Munger on the Chinese, The Story of Li Lu, The Definition of Intelligence, The Camel Metaphore, Pabrai on Facebook.
Consciousness and Paradigm Shifts, Moderating Conversations, Creating Communities, Doc Jones and Emerita, Crypto or No Crypto?
Thoughts on value vs growth, NFTs, and Canadian politics.
I expect an uptick in the already growing & significant consumer products revenues in H2 2022.
Links between poker and investing.
I’ve been intending to write something about Avante for some time.
Highlights from Aimia’s Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Highlights from WildBrain earnings calls.
I’m a fucking moron.
My favorite bits from selected fund letters
Not my best month, not my worst either.
Some details on the Peanuts and Strawberry Shortcake assets.
This reflection was inspired by the following clip of Bruce Greenwald called “How To Differentiate A Good Business From A Bad One”:
How do you know that you are thinking clearly? Or seeing clearly? If we are using our own judgment to assess the quality of our judgment…you see the issue.
I decided to exit my oil positions for the time being. First of all, I acknowledge that I have no “right to win” in this space.
My favorite bits from selected fund letters
Recap of the week
Notes from a Doc Jones interview
Notes from my favorite investing podcast
An illiquid nanocap met coal play
Why writing is a form of compounding
An interesting study on the theoretical return of a God-like active investor
News, lumber, and ROIC
Investment thesis on an unloved microcap
Thoughts on compounding in general and how it applies to WildBrain
Fuck Trudeau
More macro ramblings on oil and why I’m increasing my position
Recap of the week
A more interesting name in the customer loyalty points space
A generalist bozo’s thoughts on oil & gas
A quick dip into the customer loyalty points space
First impressions on this name
Suggested by Yen Liow, I had to take a look!
A great business but is now a great entry point?
Let the writing begin!

2021

Performance My 2021 time-weighted return was 28.9%, putting me squarely in the who-gives-a-fuck category. I got lucky and it could’ve been much worse, as I pretty much lost my marbles during the GME saga and made some speculative greedy bets that ended up evaporating about 30% of my portfolio.
Don’t be an ideologue Keep religion and dogma out of your financial decisions.
No gatherings for households with unvaccinated people New restrictions on gatherings have been announced in B.
At the beginning of the month, I decided to stop watching my stock prices. I figured, what’s the point?
Today I stumbled on this tweet: 🧵 of what Munger said this week: “It’s getting very difficult because we have a vast increase in the intellectual horsepower that’s trying to get rich by owning securities,” pic.
The old “my boyfriend was abusing me” trick. Or how superwoman world disruptor turns into sempiternal female victim to save her ass Face with tears of joy
Today was a rough day on the markets. A new variant has been detected in South Africa, and it seems to be a vicious one with a lot of mutations in the right (or wrong, depending how you look at it) places.
A wise man’s life is based around FUCK YOU. The Gambler You know how I stayed alive this long, all these years?
$BABA have released their earnings, and the market didn’t like them. I didn’t look into the details of it, but basically growth and margin have slowed down in their core commerce business due to competitive pressures.
UPDATE (2021-11-29) Looks like I was wrong on the lumber supply crunch…I confused lumber production with lumber transportation.
This list is by no means intended to be comprehensive, and it will most likely grow with time.
Just read this fantastic post from Kuppy. I absolutely love how he discards all the unpredictable and risky stuff that sometimes passes for desirable asymetry, whereas it’s just unknowable shit that could go either way.
Some time ago, I decided to sell my entire stake in $CTS.TO. I explained my reasons here.
One of my sizeable investments gambles has reached a new low of $1.37. My average cost is $2.
This month was a good one. My best year-to-date, actually. I don’t show my returns anymore, at least not month to month.
One of my favorite side-benefits of investing is that it incentivizes me to learn more about topics that I might not have been interested in otherwise.
These are some notes I took listening to a CO/nversations podcast episode featuring Artem Fokin, from Caro-Kann Capital LLC.
Trump announced this Wednesday October 20th that his new company called Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) would merge with a SPAC called Digital World Acquisition Company (DWAC), with the purpose of creating a new social media (similar to Twitter) called “Truth”.
How did I hear about this company? Someone on CommonStock shared that they were down 60% on the stock.
It was the last day of our vacation in BC, and we decided to visit North Vancouver, just as an excuse to take the SeaBus.
Disclaimer: As of the date of writing this post, I am long the stock discussed here.
US-listed stocks now represent 22.9% of the portfolio, up from 22% the previous month. Although there are certainly some good opportunities in the US market, I have no appetite for more $USD exposure at the moment.
Update (2021-09-08) I was trying a bit too hard when writing this post. In a sense, that’s to be expected when one is still trying to find their style.
Notes from an awesome podcast episode of The Busines Brew, featuring Adam Robinson. This one was not easy to digest, as Adam touches on A LOT of topics.
UPDATE (2021-12-09) To boost or not to boost If you’ve been following me and reading my crazy midnight tweets, you know I was hesitant to vaccinate initially (because of unknown risks), but I did it after some time.
Comments US-listed stocks (including $BABA) now represent 22% of the portfolio. $NUR.CN is still weighing heavily on the performance.
Satisfying my ego Why do I write, and why do I publish on this lame page that nobody knows about?
Disclaimer: I am a shareholder of $OPFI. That’s how I first heard of coach Joe Moglia.
Webcast featuring William Green (@williamgreen72), Guy Spier (@GSpier) and Matthias Knab (@MatthiasKnab). I have read and greatly benefitted from Guy Spier’s wonderful book “The Education of a Value Investor” and have just received William’s highly praised “Richer, Wiser, Happier”, which is next on my reading list.
Full credits to: @Plum_Capital Share price: $13 Market cap 6.4M shares outstanding (as of May 10, 2021) + 3.
Bottom-line upfront At $3, seems cheap to me. Almost free option on the upside… Some details The latest revenue figures:
Like I said in the previous NuRAN posts here and here, $NUR.CN started as an oversized speculative bet.
This is a summary of a truly fantastic episode of the “Grit Happens” podcast, featuring Glenn Stearns, founder and CEO of Kind Lending.
This is my personal summary of Guy Spier’s wonderful book. I take the liberty of mixing snippets from the book with my own thoughts.
Why I’m exiting I had a small position in Viemed because it’s a company with strong growth, a strong moat and a deep runway.
In a nutshell Connor Haley (Alta Fox Capital) made a presentation (video and slides) about multi-baggers.
In my first post about Nuran, I talked a lot about my internal and external environment, internal being my feelings (frustration, envy, greed), and external being my work setting, the information I expose myself to, etc.
I need to flush out everything I can about the Nuran thing. Rub my nose in it.
The concept of circle of competence is well known in the investing community. I believe it was popularized by Warren Buffett, at least that’s how I first came accross it.
Preliminary remark I purposely refrain from sharing my portfolio updates on social media. First, because no one cares.
My wife found a house she likes for sale today. Asking price around $550K. House has been on the market for one day.
Thesis Summary Final version (LOL): Listen. I’m not gonna pretend I understand Alibaba’s business and the risks involved.
This month’s positive performance was driven mainly by CTS.TO which has been a great holding so far (up more than 100% since first purchase), and NUR.
Bottom line up front I am not taking a position in DCM as of today. While the stock is cheap in terms of multiples, the company is in the declining printing business and they need a mini-miracle to expand out of it into digital.